Dinamica mișcării anti-vaccinare
Mii de grupuri FB de antivaxxeri, de provacciniști sau de indeciși dar preocupați de tematica vaccinării au fost analizate pentru a înțelege dinamica mișcării anti-vaccinare. Deși sunt mai puțini ca număr de indivizi, se pare că mișcarea antivaccin este în ascensiune. (Nu e clar din articol, presupun că au analizat grupuri anglo-saxone).
Explicații:
=====
First, although anti-vaccination clusters are smaller numerically …. and have ideologically fringe opinions, anti-vaccination clusters have become central in terms of the positioning within the network.
Second, instead of the undecided population being passively persuaded by the anti- or pro-vaccination populations, undecided individuals are highly active: the undecided clusters have the highest growth of new out-links.
Third, anti-vaccination individuals form more than twice as many clusters compared with pro-vaccination individuals by having a much smaller average cluster size. This means that the anti-vaccination population provides a larger number of sites for engagement than the pro-vaccination population.
..our qualitative analysis of cluster content shows that anti-vaccination clusters offer a wide range of potentially attractive narratives that blend topics such as safety concerns, conspiracy theories and alternative health and medicine, and also now the cause and cure of the COVID-19 virus. … By contrast, pro-vaccination views are far more monothematic.
…anti-vaccination population being able to attract more undecided individuals by offering many different types of cluster, each with its own type of negative narrative regarding vaccines.
The simulation reproduces the increase in anti-vaccination support in 2019, and predicts that anti-vaccination views will dominate in approximately 10 years.
=====
Modelele matematice de simulare a creșterii grupurilor sugerează că mișcarea pro-vaccin poate să mențină un avantaj comparativ cu cea anti-vaccin dacă (printr-un miracol?) crește eterogenitatea grupurilor antivaccin cu poziția cea mai centrală în rețea.
Johnson, N.F., Velásquez, N., Restrepo, N.J. et al. The online competition between pro- and anti-vaccination views. Nature (2020).